Eric McConico vs Rodolfo Vieira: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · April 25, 2026
Result
Eric McConico defeated Rodolfo Vieira by Decision - Unanimous in round 3 (5:00) at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 25, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Eric McConico at only 36%, so this was an upset against the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Rodolfo Vieira a 64% chance to beat Eric McConico (Eric McConico 36%).
The betting market prices Eric McConico at 29% (+224) and Rodolfo Vieira at 71% (-299), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Eric McConico than the bookmakers: 40% for Eric McConico against the market's 29%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
McConico's cardio may keep him competitive, but Vieira's elite grappling and submission threat could lead to a decisive finish on the ground.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: decision 50%, submission 31%, KO/TKO 19%. The most likely way this 3-round middleweight fight ends is on the scorecards.
Fight length: goes the distance 50%, over 1.5 rounds 84%, over 2.5 rounds 74%.
Key factors
- Grappling edge for Vieira
- Submission threat from Vieira
- McConico's cardio advantage
Tale of the tape
| Eric McConico | Rodolfo Vieira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 6-5 |
| Age | 36 | 37 |
| Height | 6'0" (183 cm) | 5'11" (180 cm) |
| UFC fights | 5 | 11 |
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