Austen Lane vs Iwo Baraniewski: Result and Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
Result
Iwo Baraniewski defeated Austen Lane by KO/TKO in round 1 (0:28) at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy on March 21, 2026.
The FIGHT//AI model had Iwo Baraniewski as the favourite at 76%, so the result went with the model.
Model prediction
The FIGHT//AI headline probability gave Iwo Baraniewski a 76% chance to beat Austen Lane (Austen Lane 24%).
The betting market prices Austen Lane at 17% (+445) and Iwo Baraniewski at 83% (-656), with the bookmaker margin removed.
Our model is more positive on Austen Lane than the bookmakers: 35% for Austen Lane against the market's 17%. A gap like this is where value bets come from.
In a clash of styles, Baraniewski's elite striking and defensive prowess should exploit Lane's grappling vulnerabilities, potentially leading to a decisive finish.
How the model expected it to end
Method of victory, either fighter: KO/TKO 56%, decision 22%, submission 21%. The most likely way this 3-round light heavyweight fight ends is by KO/TKO.
Fight length: goes the distance 22%.
Key factors
- Baraniewski's elite striking
- Lane's grappling weaknesses
- Recent form favors Baraniewski
Tale of the tape
| Austen Lane | Iwo Baraniewski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Age | 39 | 28 |
| Height | 6'6" (198 cm) | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| UFC fights | 6 | 4 |
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